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When President Bush meets with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro
Koizumi in the ancient capital of Kyoto Wednesday, he is
expected to take up the long-simmering issue of Japan's
two-year embargo of U.S. beef. Question is, will Bush leave
the meeting with a promise — and a date — to resume commerce?
Remarks Tuesday by Japanese Trade Minister Toshihiro Nikai
weren't encouraging. "U.S. beef will be accepted by the
Japanese on the condition that consumers are willing to
buy and eat it," Nikai told reporters after meeting with
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Portman. "It's wrong [of
them] to drive in their idea through an aggressive negotiation."
In particular, Nikai criticized members of the U.S. Senate
for threatening sanctions of $3.1 billion — the amount the
U.S. beef industry says it lost in sales to Japan since
2004 — unless Tokyo lifts its ban by the end of the year.
"I told the U.S. side, 'We are making an effort toward a
decision, so please don't rush us.'"
While encouraged by recent progress made by Japan's Prion
Committee, American Meat Institute CEO J. Patrick Boyle
and National Cattlemen's Beef Association Terry Stokes indicated
in a letter to Bush Tuesday that resumption of trade has
"not been addressed in an expeditious nor immediate manner."
The letter also noted that "cattle producers and beef processors
are very concerned about the conditions of access to the
Japanese market in the agreement … currently under review."
Current estimates from USDA indicate the potentially eligible
product that could meet Japan's requirements would be only
7 to 8 percent of current domestic production, substantially
less than was previously marketed to Japanese consumers.
Demand may be low
However, based on polls of Japanese retailers and foodservice
providers, demand may not reach the same level the U.S.
beef industry previously enjoyed — at least not initially.
In fact, a survey of major restaurant chains and supermarkets
by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper found that U.S. beef
sales to Japan would amount to only 10 percent to 20 percent
of levels prior to the December 2003 ban.
The survey, published Monday, found that only 7 percent
of the supermarkets and restaurants polled plan to buy U.S.
beef within one or two months after imports resume. Another
52 percent indicated they would likely offer U.S. beef within
six months after assessing safety and price, while 27 percent
indicated they had no plans to buy U.S. beef for the time
being. |
